투자의 보이지 않는 코드: 시스템 사고로 해독하는 8대 경제 아키타입

"투자의 보이지 않는 코드: 시스템 사고로 해독하는 8대 경제 아키타입"
(The Hidden Code of Investing:
Decoding 8 Economic Archetypes Through Systems Thinking)

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1. 이 시리즈는?

타이틀: "투자의 보이지 않는 코드: 시스템 사고로 해독하는 8대 경제 아키타입"
(The Hidden Code of Investing:
Decoding 8 Economic Archetypes Through Systems Thinking)

The Hidden Code of Investing: Decoding 8 Economic Archetypes Through Systems Thinking

투자계 거장들의 철학과 원칙, 기법과 전략들을 가지고,

시스템 사고(System Thinking)의 원형(archetype)을 연결하여 이야기 형식으로 설명합니다.

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2. 소개 글

"역사 속 경제 위기와 투자 거장들의 결정적 순간에는  
항상 반복되는 **8가지 패턴**이 숨어있습니다.  
이 시리즈는 복잡한 금융 세계를 시스템 사고의 렌즈로 해체해  
'왜 똑같은 실수가 반복되는지', '위기를 예측하는 법'을 탐구합니다.  
각 편은 하나의 아키타입을 집중 조명하며  
실제 사례, 빅데이터 시뮬레이션, 거장들의 철학을 결합해  
투자 전략의 숨은 논리를 밝혀냅니다."  

 

3. 8가지 패턴(Archetype)

(1) "실패한 교정(Fixes that Fail)"   _{▤ Read More}

• "빠른 해결책이 장기적 재앙을 부른다"
  투자 역사상 가장 뛰어난 거장들도 단기적 문제 해결에 매몰되어 장기적 실패를 경험했습니다. 시스템 사고의 "실패한 교정(Fixes that Fail)" 아키타입은 바로 이런 패턴을 설명합니다.
•  

(2) "부담의 전가(Shifting the Burden)"   _{▤ Read More}

• "단기 수익의 유혹이 장기 역량을 잠식한다"
• *"부담의 전가"는 문제의 근본 원인을 해결하지 않고 **증상만 완화하는 행위가 시스템을 점차 취약하게 만드는 패턴입니다. 투자 세계에서는 고수익 추구와 리스크 관리 사이에서 균형을 잃을 때 자주 발생합니다.

(3) "성장의 한계(Limits to Growth)"   _{▤ Read More}

• "과열된 성장은 스스로의 멸망을 초대한다"
• *"성장의 한계"는 성장 동력이 오히려 시스템을 붕괴시키는 역설을 설명합니다. 투자 세계에서는 **과도한 확장이 수익성을 악화시키는 순간들이 빈번히 발생하며, 이는 피터 린치의 "20% 성장 법칙"과 정확히 맞닿습니다.

• 

(4) "침식되는 목표(Eroding Goals)"   _{▤ Read More}

• "목표의 점진적 하락이 기업의 DNA를 파괴한다"
• *"침식되는 목표"는 원래 목표를 점차 낮추며 **타협의 악순환을 만드는 패턴입니다. 존 템플턴의 "본질적 가치 고수" 원칙과 대비되는 현상으로, 단기적 편의에 굴복한 기업들이 장기 경쟁력을 잃는 과정을 설명합니다.

(5) "성장과 과소투자(Growth and Underinvestment)"   _{▤ Read More}

• "과도한 성장 압박이 필수 투자를 저해할 때"
• *"성장과 과소투자"는 성장을 유지하기 위해 **핵심 역량 강화 투자를 희생시키는 패턴을 설명합니다. 아마존의 장기적 R&D 집중과 위워크의 과도한 공간 확장이 대비되는 사례에서 이 메커니즘을 명확히 관찰할 수 있습니다.

(6) "승자의 보상(Success to the Successful)"   _{▤ Read More}

• "성공의 선순환이 독점을 강화하는 양날의 검"
• *"승자의 보상"은 초기 성공이 더 많은 자원을 유입시켜 **경쟁 구조를 왜곡하는 패턴을 설명합니다. 애플의 폐쇄적 생태계와 오픈소스 운동의 대립에서 이 메커니즘이 명확히 드러납니다.

(7) "단계적 확대(Escalation)"   _{▤ Read More}

• "경쟁적 확대가 공동 파국을 초래하는 순간"
• *"단계적 확대"는 경쟁자 간의 **상호 과잉 투자가 시스템을 불안정하게 만드는 패턴입니다. 소프트뱅크 비전펀드의 과열된 투자 경쟁과 테슬라의 가격 인하 전쟁에서 이 메커니즘이 극명하게 드러납니다.

(8) "공유지의 비극(Tragedy of the Commons)"   _{▤ Read More}

• "개별 이익 추구가 공동 자원을 파괴하는 순환고리"
• *"공유지의 비극"은 공동 자원을 개별 주체가 **과도하게 착취하며 발생하는 시스템 붕괴 현상입니다. 개럿 하딘이 1968년 제시한 이 개념은, ESG 투자 열풍 속 기업의 환경 무임승차 문제와 깊이 연결됩니다.

25.04.11.
Horus Hawks

 

 

다음은 이 시리즈를 기획하며 참고한 자료들 입니다.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixes_that_fail
[2] https://pictureperfectportfolios.com/warren-buffetts-biggest-investment-hits-and-misses/
[3] https://www.thetrendfollower.com/2016/11/a-famous-lesson-for-turtles-from.html
[4] https://thesystemsthinker.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Systems-Archetypes-Basics-WB002E.pdf
[5] https://acquirersmultiple.com/2025/02/warren-buffett-the-wisdom-in-owning-our-mistakes/
[6] https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/08/turtle-trading.asp
[7] https://tgsfinancial.com/warren-buffetts-two-rules-and-some-advice-from-my-mom/
[8] https://www.tradingwithrayner.com/turtle-trading-rules/
[9] https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/warren-buffetts-biggest-investing-mistake-recompound-nt0lc
[10] https://blog.iseesystems.com/systems-thinking/shifting-the-burden/
[11] https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/volkswagen-list-import-fee-cars-show-how-much-trumps-tariffs-are-costing-customers-1732519
[12] https://thesystemsthinker.com/introducing-the-systems-archetypes-shifting-the-burden/
[13] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1UOy8kmsxvc
[14] https://www.fool.co.uk/2025/03/30/heres-what-warren-buffett-looks-for-in-growth-stocks/
[15] https://seniorsclimateactionnetwork.org/limits-to-growth.html
[16] https://people.stern.nyu.edu/mcapek/handouts_p/A%20Limits%20to%20Growth%20Story.pdf
[17] https://pictureperfectportfolios.com/warren-buffetts-investment-criteria-an-in-depth-analysis/
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[21] https://systemsandus.com/archetypes/eroding-goals/
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[23] https://www.altrady.com/blog/crypto-trading-strategies/overview-historical-performance
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[26] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D4bWa9DTsZc
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[28] https://thesystemsthinker.com/growth-and-underinvestment-is-your-company-playing-with-a-wooden-racket/
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[34] https://thesystemsthinker.com/success-to-the-successful-self-fulfilling-prophecies/
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[43] https://economictimes.com/markets/stocks/news/warren-buffetts-guide-to-market-chaos-3-investing-lessons-amid-tariff-tensions/articleshow/119038629.cms
[44] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tragedy-of-the-commons.asp
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[52] https://cogentsw.com/investment-management/more-money-is-lost-waiting-for-corrections-than-in-them/
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[55] https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/15/warren-buffetts-failures-15-investing-mistakes-he-regrets.html
[56] https://www.trading.live/en/question/is-trend-following-a-false-proposition-58324
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[58] https://marcustoday.com.au/2024/07/why-warren-buffetts-strategy-is-failing-you/
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[113] https://www.the4nineteengroup.com/post/the-power-of-inversion

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